Persistent questions about a potential primary challenge from her left have led some party insiders to wonder whether she would run. However, since announcing her re-election bid in January, the field of potential challengers appears to be thinning out.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of the most potent potential challengers to Gillibrand, seems to be closing the door on a possible run. According to POLITICO, Lauren Hitt, Ocasio-Cortez's spokesperson, stated, "She is not planning to run for Senate in 2024. She is not planning to primary Gillibrand."
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Other potential challengers have also opted out of the race. A source familiar with the plans of former New York Rep. Mondaire Jones, a progressive, confirmed that Jones would not run for Gillibrand's seat next year after having privately considered the possibility. In addition, Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) told POLITICO they were uninterested in the race.
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Isaac Goldberg, a Democratic consultant based in New York, praised Gillibrand's performance as a senator, saying, "Sen. Gillibrand has represented our state incredibly well."
May 01, 2023
Goldberg pointed to her record on vital Democratic issues such as the right to choose, paid leave, family leave, workers' rights, and a green economy, noting that there was no current momentum for a challenge against her.
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It is essential to recognize that political calculations can change. Ocasio-Cortez stating she isn't planning to run is not the same as declaring that she won't. However, her comment represents the most definitive statement that a 2024 Senate campaign is not in the cards.
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If Ocasio-Cortez follows through with her intention to forgo a Senate bid, it would significantly ease the path to re-election for Gillibrand, whose primary concern has been the political challenges she faces from within her party.
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According to her allies and supporters, Gillibrand's personal solid relationships may have deterred some challengers. For instance, in January, she had a "lovely lunch" with Ocasio-Cortez and her chief of staff in the Senate Dining Room.
Furthermore, the setbacks New York Democrats experienced in 2022 have bolstered Gillibrand's position. The party lost four House seats to Republicans during the midterms, prompting many top state Democratic officials to emphasize the importance of avoiding a contentious primary and focusing on recovering those House seats and protecting vulnerable members like Rep. Pat Ryan.
Jay Jacobs, chair of the New York Democratic Party, expressed concerns about a divisive primary, saying, "I think it's divisive. And unless you think you can win, it's divisive unnecessarily." Jacobs emphasized the need to preserve resources for more coordinated efforts.
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Camille Rivera, a New York-based progressive strategist, acknowledged that competitive primaries often benefit Democracy and candidates but warned that a Democratic contest in New York "could be pretty bruising and give a Republican a leg up."
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A Democratic strategist with close ties to the Working Families Party, a liberal group founded in New York, stated that the organization has no appetite to challenge Gillibrand. The strategist emphasized the importance of focusing on the 2024 election and New York's role in taking back Congress.
State party officials are already developing a collaborative campaigning and fundraising effort led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Gillibrand reportedly has a "regular" conversation with Jeffries about the coordinated campaign.
Evan Lukaske, a spokesperson for Gillibrand, said in a statement that the senator is "excited to run on her record of delivering for New York families. From making gun trafficking a federal crime to securing health benefits for 9/11 survivors to bringing home hundreds of millions of dollars for projects that will boost the economy, Senator Gillibrand has consistently gotten real results."
Not long ago, however, Gillibrand's future seemed less confident. After an unsuccessful presidential bid that ended before the first primary contests, she faced criticism for her role in former Sen. Al Franken's resignation and her acceptance of donations from crypto-billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. Gillibrand's team has since stated that the money was donated to a nonprofit.
Michael Blake, a former Bronx-based assembly member, and Democratic National Committee vice chair, questioned Gillibrand's commitment to New York, saying, "[Gillibrand] effectively hasn't been here until it's been election time. She made a previous run for president. I don't think her family even goes to school here in New York anymore. I mean, I think there's a fair question of: Does she truly want to represent?"
Gillibrand's perceived weaknesses can be partly attributed to the state she represents and the political era in which she serves. Many progressives view New York as a liberal bastion and expect its senators to reflect that.
Although Gillibrand would be considered very liberal in many states nationwide — having voted with President Joe Biden 95 percent of the time — some on the left are uneasy with her Wall Street ties and view her as an ideological interloper.
Ocasio-Cortez, who has national name recognition and significant financial resources ($5 million in the bank compared to Gillibrand's $6 million), would be well-positioned to challenge the incumbent senator.
However, the congresswoman has long been coy about her future ambitions. There was speculation that she might challenge Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) last year. Although such talk did prompt the Senate majority leader to shift leftward, a campaign against him never materialized.
Bowman, an ally of Ocasio-Cortez, said he had heard her name mentioned as a primary contender "weeks ago or months ago," but not recently.
Another potential Democratic challenger for Gillibrand is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who resigned amid accusations of sexual harassment against multiple women, which he denies. A spokesperson for Cuomo declined to comment for this story. The former governor has approximately $10 million in a state, not federal, elections account.
Jay Jacobs, chair of the New York Democratic Party, acknowledged hearing rumors and speculation about potential challengers to Gillibrand but added, "I have not heard from any specific candidate that is giving it serious thought or beginning to raise money or hire staff. So my guess is, unless something emerges soon, it's going to be just a lot of talk."
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