Musk, who has been vocal about his concerns with AI, stated, "My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year. And then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in five years."
However, Gary Marcus, the founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning AI startup, has expressed strong disagreement with Musk's predictions. In a daring move, Marcus has wagered $1 million to challenge Musk's claims. Shortly after Marcus's bet was made public, Damion Hankejh, Investor and CEO of ingk.com, proposed to increase the bet to a staggering $10 million. Hankejh, however, has not responded to requests for comments on his offer.
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Marcus, who has previously bet against Musk's claims about the imminence of artificial general intelligence (AGI), increasing the wager to $500,000, is not merely interested in winning the bet. He expressed to Business Insider his desire for a public discourse with Musk regarding the actual state of AI. "For years, a lot of the people in the tech industry have been making claims that feel implausible to me from a scientific perspective," Marcus stated. "And there have been a lot of broken promises yet hardly any accountability."
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Marcus pointed out the challenges in creating reliable technology, using driverless cars as an example. He believes it is crucial for people to understand what is realistically achievable in AI. According to Marcus, large language models will not surpass human intelligence in the next five years. He even suggested that we might be decades away from machines that are as reliable and trustworthy as humans.
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Despite acknowledging that large language models are currently the best tech in AI, Marcus raised concerns about their effectiveness. He cited hallucinations, security data leaks, and reliability issues as some of the problems. He also mentioned the misuse of the technology for spreading misinformation and infringing on artists' copyrights.
Marcus advocated for the development of better, more trustworthy AI. He suggested the implementation of a licensing authority that would require demonstrating the benefits of AI.
Musk, who has previously stated that there's a 10 to 20% chance AI will destroy humanity, has also taken legal action against OpenAI, alleging it betrayed its mission to benefit humanity. Marcus publicly supported Musk over the lawsuit, stating, "I was actually quite supportive of Musk. I think that drawing attention to those things is a good thing."
While Marcus believes AI could be beneficial to humanity, he remains less optimistic about its trustworthiness in the near future.
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