According to the Washington Examiner, a new J.L. Partners poll shared with its Washington Secrets vertical shows Cotton holding a 16-point advantage over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer whose July showing stunned observers. Shoffner had trailed Cotton by just 3 points in a 2040 Strategy Group poll, an outlier result in a state where President Donald Trump carried Arkansas by 30 points less than two years ago.
The latest survey of 803 registered voters puts Cotton at 51% and Shoffner at 35%, with Libertarian Jeff Wadlin drawing 4% and 11% of respondents still undecided. While the margin is narrower than Cotton’s 33-point blowout in 2020 — when Democrats declined to field a candidate and a Libertarian took 33% — it still reflects a solid Republican advantage in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008.
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James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, acknowledged some Democratic gains but dismissed talk of a true battleground. “There’s no doubt that Democrats are doing better in Arkansas than in 2024 or 2020,” he said, yet added, “But unlike some of the commentary floating around, this poll shows this is still a red state that the Republicans have on lock, with a double-digit lead. Arkansas is not in play in the Senate this year.”
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Democrats, who need to flip only four seats to seize control of the Senate, had briefly pointed to the July poll as evidence that Cotton’s seat was “flippable.” “For so long, the story has been that no one should even try, it doesn’t matter, nothing will ever change,” Shoffner’s campaign manager, Anna-Lee Pittman, told the Arkansas Times, arguing, “It’s why a sitting senator amassed a $10 million war chest, to get everyone else to pre-surrender. But Hallie is not scared.”
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The J.L. Partners poll indicates Cotton is running behind the GOP’s 2024 margins in Arkansas, when Republican House candidates won by an average of 36 points, but he still commands 89% support among Republicans and leads across most demographic groups. His job approval remains net positive, with 52% saying they “somewhat” or “strongly” approved of his performance and 44% disapproving, while Shoffner’s ratings sit at 32% approve and 39% disapprove, with 28% still unfamiliar — a reminder that, for all the Democratic optimism, Arkansas remains a deeply conservative state where Republicans continue to hold the upper hand.
