This claim was made in his report titled "How quickly could Iran make nuclear weapons today?" published on January 8.
Albright, who is the founder and president of the esteemed Institute for Science and International Security based in Washington, stated, "Iran can quickly make enough weapon-grade uranium for many nuclear weapons, something it could not do in 2003. Today, it would need only about a week to produce enough for its first nuclear weapon. It could have enough weapon-grade uranium for six weapons in one month, and after five months of producing weapon-grade uranium, it could have enough for twelve.”
He further noted that Iran could immediately commence preparatory work to convert the weapon-grade uranium into nuclear weapon components. This is in anticipation of later receiving weapon-grade uranium. He pointed out that Iran had accomplished a significant amount of such work during the Amad Plan and subsequently at civilian nuclear facilities at Esfahan over the past few years. This was part of Iran's buildup of its nuclear program, which included the production of a small amount of 20 percent enriched uranium metal, a material that can substitute for weapon-grade uranium.
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Albright, who previously served as a UN weapons inspector in Iraq, wrote, "Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capability is often condemned, most recently in a December 28th joint statement by the United States and its close European allies. The occasion was the Iranian action to expand its output of 60 percent enriched uranium. This level of enrichment is a hair’s breadth from 90 percent enriched or weapon-grade uranium, the enrichment level most desired for making nuclear weapons. That is also the enrichment level used in Iran’s nuclear weapons designs, which it nearly perfected during its crash nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s, codenamed the Amad Plan. This program was shut down in 2003 and replaced with a smaller, more dispersed nuclear weapons effort, with the decision to make them postponed.”
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Following the publication of Albright's article, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told the UAE-owned newspaper that “Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state which is enriching uranium at this very, very high level – very close to weapons grade.” He added, “I'm not saying they have a nuclear weapon, I'm saying this is sensitive. And when you're doing that … you abide by the rules.”
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Albright expressed concern that Western intelligence agencies, including Israel's, may fail to detect the commencement of Iran’s nuclear weaponization effort due to the complexities and conflicts in the Middle East. He warned, "The beginning stages of a quiet, low-level effort to build nuclear weapons could slip through unobserved.”
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The nuclear expert suggested that given the short warning times and few prospects of a nuclear deal, the United States and its allies should focus on a strategy to deter Iran from deciding to build nuclear weapons in the first place. He recommended that Iran should be made fully aware through concrete demonstrations that building nuclear weapons will trigger quick, drastic actions by the international community, including military strikes.
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Albright further proposed that "U.S. military cooperation with Israel aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities should be bolstered, ensuring Israel can decisively strike Iran’s nuclear sites on short notice if there are signs that Iran is moving to build nuclear weapons, including the ability of delivering a second strike if Iran reconstitutes those activities. The priority should be assisting and building military capabilities with our allies and regional partners in the Middle East, with a U.S. commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and deter Iran from retaliation."
